Step 1
Most people spend more time planning a vacation than planning thirty years without a paycheck. Enter your numbers. See how it plays out.
Scroll down to enter your numbers
Your Runway
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3,000 what-if runs (we call each one a “future”) · spending is after estimated federal tax · projections, not guarantees. How this works →
| Projected balance at retirement | — |
|---|---|
| Years in retirement | — |
| Social Security / mo | — |
The odds
This run assumes your savings grow about 7% a year, prices rise about 3% a year, and returns swing by roughly 12 percentage points up or down in a typical year. The full analysis also tests other combinations.
Your levers
One change on each row that would get you to about 85 in 100. Projections, not guarantees.
| What you’d change | Success rate | Change | The trade-off |
|---|
What your plan can support
Your target spend is —. —
| 75% · Flexible | —— |
|---|---|
| 85% · Standard | —— |
| 90% · Conservative | —— |
What this means. —
Each row is 3,000 futures. Standard (85%) means the spending works in about 85 of 100 futures. Flexible (75%) lets you spend a bit more; Conservative (90%) means spending less to be safer. A higher number here means a more careful spending level — not a safer plan at the same spending.
Portfolio Overview
The shaded band covers the middle half of the 3,000 futures; the line down the middle is the typical outcome. By the end the band is very wide — that's how much the range of outcomes grows over the years. Use the buttons above to switch between today's money and future dollars.
Decade by decade
| Life stage | Total spend | Social Security | From savings | End balance (typical) |
|---|
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3,000 what-if runs, each with a different string of market ups and downs. Shown at the 85% level — your money holds up in about 85 of 100 futures.
The big number assumes your savings grow a steady 7% every year until you retire — a straight line. The "if growth is uneven" number lets returns rise and fall year to year like real markets do (a typical swing of about ±12 points), so you could reach retirement with more or less than the straight-line amount. Where these assumptions come from is on the methodology page.
Projections, not guarantees — based on the inputs above. Full methodology →
| Age | — |
|---|---|
| Spouse | — |
| Savings | — |
| Annual contributions | — |
| Target monthly spend | — |
| Planning through | — |
| Social Security (you) | — |
| SS (spouse) | — |
| Return (pre-retirement) | — |
|---|---|
| Return (post-retirement) | — |
| Inflation | — |
| Federal tax (estimated) | — |
| Planning target | 85 in 100 |
Understand what drives the outcome
See which years get tight, how the timing of Social Security changes things, and how much easing your spending later moves the odds — the full year-by-year view, free.